Observers are assessing the outcome of the Secretary of State Mrs. Clinton’s trip to the Middle East. The Itinerary of the secretary was, first, the attendance of U.S.-Islamic World conference, second, stops in various Arab cities to promote and gather support for tougher sanctions against Iran. The result: mission unaccomplished.

About a year ago, the President delivered a speech in Cairo to push the restart button with the Muslim world, a year later the Muslim world and America for that matter received nothing other than sweet talk from each other. For the Muslim World America is still fighting two wars on Muslim land with no tangible or prospect for favorable end results for the Afghan and Iraqi populations. America is still disengaged from the peace process; America is now meddling in another Arab country’s affairs, Yemen; And America is threatening another Muslim country with severe sanctions, denying it the right to have nuclear power, whilst turning a blind eye on what Arabs perceive as the biggest threat in the region, Israeli two hundred or so nuclear war heads.

Thus, Instead of getting support for the U.S. led effort for more sanctions against Iran, Mrs. Clinton received skepticism form the Saudi Government on the effectiveness of more sanctions. Saudi foreign minister announced in a joint press conference with the U.S. secretary what is needed is “immediate measures” to solve the problem not more sanctions. She received similar response in university campus meetings, in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Most of the questions and comments the secretary received downplayed the threat of Iran and highlighted the threat of the Israeli nuclear bomb.

In the past few days the Dubai Chief of Police released CCTV footage of a hit team that took the life of Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh on January 19, 2010. This footage has sparked an international man hunt for the 11 people identified by their passport photos.

Mabhouh was a senior member of Hamas and one of its founders. He was thought to be heavily involved in the 1989 kidnapping and murder of two Israeli Soldiers, Avi Saparotas and Ilan Saadon. Mabhouh held the position of chief weapons importer to Hamas. Mabhouh has negotiated weapons deal with the Iranians to supply Hamas with long-range missiles, the deadliest weapons in Hamas’s arsenal.

The last moments of Mabhouh’s life were tracked by UAE authorities. 17 members are believed to comprise Mahbouh’s hit team. The hit team arrived in Dubai Airport 19 hours before the killing. They arrived separately from different destinations, checked in to different hotel rooms, paid for their purchases in cash, used disposable cell phones, never had telephone contact with each other but called a suspicious number in Austria. As soon as Mabhouh landed at UAE he was shadowed by members of the team. Other members of the team dressed as Tennis Players followed him to his hotel and then inside the elevator to his floor. One member checked in to a room opposite that of Mabhouh. Mabhouh took a walk around the city and came back to his hotel room around 8:30 pm. It is believed that 4 members of the team were laying in wait for him at his hotel room and ambushed him. There were conflicting reports as to whether Mabhouh as suffocated or electrocuted. After the killing, the team was able to fly out of Dubai. Since the murder, Hamas has pointed an accusatory finger at Mossad, the Israeli Intelligence Agency. Hamas believes that the Israelis assassinated Mabhouh along with perhaps some other unnamed intelligence services.

If we hypothesize that Mossad had indeed carried out the assassination certain questions come to mind.

1) Why were 17 team members sent to assassinate one man in a city like Dubai, 11 of whom were roaming the city shadowing him? Are 11 people really needed to shadow one person?

2) Why were the 11 constantly changing disguises within view of the cameras of CCTV? Surely it would draw more suspicion not less, to the team than if they simply behaved naturally. 11 different faces would surely not raise suspicion with Mabhouh with in a short span of less than 19 hours, there was no need for the elaborate pageantry of changing costumes, especially when the team knew that cameras were tracking their every move. It seems that the assassins were trying to leave a trail of evidence and draw the attention of the authorities once they had left the country.

3) At one point the female suspect looked up at the camera and smiled. The suspect, if a professional would most likely be aware that she was on camera, why would she give the camera a full frontal view of her face?

4) The passports used by the team in some cases were of real people. The passports were not stolen, rather their identity was used with a different picture and in some cases different passport numbers. At least 3 of the people are Olim, or new immigrants to Israel from Great Britain and 4 more are also Israeli citizens. Why would the Mossad use the identity of Israeli citizens in an operations of this magnitude, not only providing a direct link to Israel but also endangering its own citizens, possibly putting them on Hamas hit lists?

5) Why were two Palestinians arrested in connection with the assassination by Jordanian Authorities? What was their involvement? Were they helping Mossad or Perhaps another entity?

6) Finally, since the split between the Palestinian groups Fatah and Hamas, the two entities have been at war with each other. Weapons that Mabhouh was smuggling into Gaza would most likely be used against Fatah as well. Fatah also had an interest in the death of Mabhouh.

The Mossad has not been free of errors of late, 2 Israeli citizens were arrested a few years ago on suspicion of stealing passports in New Zealand. However, this operation seems to be even sloppier. Simply too many people were involved in the hit to escape undetected. An agency of the caliber of Mossad must know of the closed circuit cameras through out Dubai and yet the alleged Mossad agents allowed the cameras to obtain full views of their faces. Mabhouh was trailed so closely that he even bumped one of the assassins on the way from the airport. The passports were real names of real Israeli citizens, forging a direct link to Israel. spy agencies usually like to conduct assassinations without traces, especially to their own country. Unless the Mossad has become completely incompetent of late; it seems almost too easy to accuse it.

The video depicting the death of Neda Agha-Soltan during the June 2009 protests in Iran has won the George Polk Award for Journalism. This video is the first anonymous video to win the award.

Presidential campaign is underway in Sudan. The president Omar al-Bashir has allowed presidential election in what observers believe is an attempt to garner support and legitimacy in the face of the International Criminal Court indictment for his role in the Darfur conflict. Coming to power after a coup in 1989, Al-Bashir is promising new measures to improve the economy and the education systems in the country. Al-Bashir has vowed that the elections this time round will be fair and free. The president deserves the benefit of the doubt, but I have my doubts.

The Daily Nite Owl, a live blog from Iran has confirmed violent clashes between police and opposition protestors.

6:40 PM (Tehran Time)

I will stop liveblogging now. There are still reports of small protests in Tehran and other cities, but people are largely returning home. Here’s a brief summary of the day’s events in Iran:

I can so far confirm green protests in Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad and Ahvaz. I can partially confirm a protest in Tabriz. I cannot say anything about numbers, but violence broke out in every city where I can confirm a protest. Dozens were arrested in Tehran – possibly hundreds. 100 people were arrested in Mashhad and about two dozen were arrested in Shiraz and Isfahan respectively.

Oppostion leaders:

Mousavi: Attended, but forced to leave.

Rahnavard: Was attacked, forced to leave.

Karroubi: Attacked, forced to leave.

Khatami: Attacked, forced to leave.

Please see reports from the rest of the day here.

The Iran Blog has posted some bullet points about the celebrations and protests in Iran today please see here

• In addition, Ahmadinejad has declared a Iran a nuclear state, stating that Iranian scientists have enriched the first batches of uranium to 20% purity and that Iran has the capacity to enrich to 80% purity. As stated here before, the nuclear program is a  source of pride for Iranians and such declarations will bolster Ahmadinejad’s approval ratings as well as the legitimacy of the revolutionary government.
• Protestors did come out to protest but were prevented from gathering in significant numbers because of the show of force by the security forces, including the Basij militias linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
• Protests also broke out in other cities, including the holy city of Mashad, Shiraz, Esfahan and around Tehran.
• There was a fair amount of western bashing… including a float parade demonizing the U.S., Britain and Israel.
• Please  see video from Iran here and here.
• In the end, security forces were able to control the situation and the opposition was not able to disturb the celebrations in a significant way.

According to the opposition website National Council of Resistance of Iran, the government is taking some pretty stark measures to control the planned protests to take place on February 11, 2010, in honor of the anniversary of the takeover by the Islamic Revolution Regime. The government has asked students to spy on classmates and report those who are sympathetic to the opposition. The government has also imported people from the provinces to fill Azadi Square, where the celebrations for the anniversary will take place. In order to prevent protestors from filling Azadi Square, security forces have stationed combat units at all the major entrances and exits of Azadi Square.

Ahead of the celebrations and protests, the press is being controlled in several different ways. Many journalists have been arrested. In addition only certain areas of Azadi Square are accesible to reporters, the areas where the protests are planned will be out of their field of vision.

In a separate development anti-Iranian protests are being planned through out Europe.

Most observers are weary of new calls for peace talks. And that is due to a very good reason. Past peace talks led nowhere. And most of us are equally skeptical of any prospect of development, peace, freedom and equality for all in Arab World. The people of the Middle East have been ruled by the same leaders and/ or their offspring for the last three decades. And until the leaders themselves or their people abolish this practice, the prospect of a lasting peace settlement and amelioration in the Arab state of affairs is bleak.

Israel prides itself of having free elections, while this is true, most candidates in these election are recycled Leaders. A short review of the current and past Israeli governments officials since 1980 will reveal that at least two thirds of the members of the government have held high posts in prior governments including Premiership, Defense, and Foreign Ministries. Shimon Perez, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ehud Barack, Ariel Sharon, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, Menchem Begin, just to name a few, all have held the aforementioned posts more than once in their political carriers. The change in position itself does not bring about change in views. Lack of new and young Leadership will guarantee extension of old policies. Israel, too, is suffering from leadership deficiency.

Many international policy experts assert that more freedom in the Arab World, with greater democratic participation in the election process would produce new leaders and new policies. Similarly, new leadership in Israel would certainly lead to a new outlook on the occupation and Palestinian plight that could eventually lead to a settlement of the conflict.

As I mentioned in my previous post, Iran has made a significant announcement regarding its nuclear program. Iran’s ambassador delivered a letter to the IAEA announcing Iran’s plans to begin enriching Iran’s stockpile of uranium to 20%.  This is significant because once Iran can enrich Uranium to 20%, the required 90% enrichment threshold for weapon- grade uranium can be reached more easily.  David Albright of Washington’s Institute for Science and International Security told the Associated Press news agency Iran’s planned enrichment ”would be going most of the rest of the way to weapon-grade uranium”. Iran also announced plans to open 10 more nuclear power plants beginning on March 21, 2010.

That being said, there are a lot of doubts as to whether Iran can enrich Uranium to 20% in the near future. Currently, Iran enriches Uranium at 3.5%-4%. It has had some difficulties at its facility at Natanz.

It seems that Ahmadinejad’s announcement and Iran’s letter to the IAEA had strategic purpose both for foreign relations and national politics.

• The Iranian opposition is calling for major protests on February 11. Iran’s government wants to posture in front of its own people, as the nuclear program is a source of national pride. This is a standard tactic, one that was often used by the Communist Party in the Soviet Union whenever its people were unhappy. The party would launch a rocket ship into space or develop some new toy so the citizens would be distracted from the gloom of everyday life and not blame the party for their troubles.
• The Iranians want to reopen negotiations with the West and Russia regarding the proposal to enrich uranium in Russia and send the enriched version back to Iran. Iran rejected this proposal by letting the deadline pass on acceptance. The Iranians hope to get more favorable terms from the West by escalating the situation and returning to the negotiating table from a position of strength.

The United States, France and Russia have all called for stronger sanctions against Iran. The Israel Blog has the analysis here.

For those of you following Iran’s nuclear developments, a major story developed over the weekend. President Ahmanidejad announced that Iran will begin enriching its sizable stock piles of uranium, ostensibly for use in medical products and technology. The uranium will be developed to 20% purity, which is easily convertible into nuclear weapons. Please see full story here, detailed analysis of Iran’s intentions and Western reactions will follow later today.