What if the Security Council fails to impose any sanctions against Iran? Will the Obama administration goes for the adventure of the 21st century and takes a unilateral action against Iran? Few experts have voiced their concerns and the scenarios that could unfold after such a military action. With all parties involved in the war bearing a huge cost, economically, politically, militarily, and socially, will a victory of any party be a real victory or a Pyrrhic victory?

Iranian cost of a war,

Iran will undoubtedly be the major loser. It will suffer great infrastructure damage, great number of deaths, and surely an even bigger damage to its political and economic structure that could lead to a complete collapse of the regime, similar to what we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan. Since the battleground will be the Iranian soil, Iranian resistance and its conduct of the war will be similar to the Iraq War (if there is a ground invasion, thus far, not a single Hawk has even alluded to it). Long, Bloody, and without any concrete and achievable strategic goals that could be ensured for the future. Iranians will have to rebuild their country anew.

American cost

As I have outlined in my previous blogs, America as of today is facing great challenges. A growing deficit; a struggling economy; two ongoing wars; Terrorism; high unemployment that is causing hardship for millions of American families; to name just a few. Iran if attacked will respond by bombing all oil refineries of the Gulf States. It will close the straight of Hormuz, which almost third of the world’s oil needs passes through. Consequentially, driving oil prices to astronomical prices, crippling any hope for an economic recovery for the U.S. and the world’s alike. China in particular will not be happy about this end result. The U.S. will suffer greater backlash from the Muslim World. Iran will use this backlash against Americans and fund and facilitate greater terrorist attacks against American interest worldwide. The disruption in oil flow and the rise in prices will automatically be blamed on the American adventure, harming further America’s image and accelerating China’s ascendance to the position of a wiser world super power.

Arab cost

Arab governments will not be spared from this war. Opted to host some of the American military bases, the Gulf States will be at the forefront in this conflict. Damage to its oil infrastructure will be enormous. Any perceived notion that these Sunni governments are aiding on destruction of a Shiite nation, it is bound to stir the emotions of the Shiite minority within these nations, leading to whatis likely be a sectarian division among the population, and possibly armed conflict. Descending further into chaos and creating an uncertainty of the final outcome of the war. Iraq’s militias will not hesitate in exporting ethnic violence to neighboring countries

Israeli cost

Israel has already prepared for such a scenario. Israel has distributed gas masks for its population. Israeli officials announced on many occasion that the country has an unsettled score against Hezbollah and Syria. An Attack on Iran will start another front on the northern border of Israel, regardless of who will instigate it. The result of which is unpredictable, especially after what Israel had suffered in the 2006 war against Hezbollah politically and militarily. Under normal circumstances, other Arab countries wouldn’t get involved in war to rescue Hezbollah. If it involves the entire country of Lebanon and Syria, however, the stakes will be high and the governments will be under extreme pressure from their populations. They will find themselves either crumbling, or politically or otherwise involved in the conflict.

Click here to listen to Mr. Brzezinski  speak about the these scenarios:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xat-C4SpBl4