A few scattershot things of interest
Today’s Asharq Al-aswat has an interesting and disturbing article about al-Qaeda shifting its base to the Gulf, or, more precisely, Yemen. It quotes an anonymous official saying he “believes that Yemen may replace Afghanistan as the incubator to breed, rally and train [terrorists]. In practice, Yemen could become the new Al Qaeda base- a label once reserved for Afghanistan.” Most observers have tended to think the new base for The Base would be Pakistan, but it is good to remember the (possibly fake) hadith: “When disorder threatens, seek refuge in Yemen“.
On a brighter note, the American University in Cairo has come out with its list of newly published books. These range from ancient Egyptian history to a look at 19th-Century Egyptian Theatre to modern politics, with the latest in Arabic literature scattered in. There also seems to be several books about the late Naguib Mafouz, including a series of conversations with him during his last hospital stay. Worth checking out.
Finally, the Boston Review has a long article by Abbas Milani about Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Milani explains how Ahmadinejad was shaped by the history of Iran in his lifetime- both its political and economic upheavals. (with what is almost an aside about how the Shah’s modernization led to a massive influx into the cities- one of those little pieces of history that are massively important but often go unnoticed). In doing so, he places Ahmadinejad squarely in the Iranian experience, and helps explains what he means for the country’s present and future. On the subject, be sure to check out Ahmadinejad’s blog. It isn’t as interesting as one would hope, though he does seem to be writing more, explaining “Since my last post on the blog, a few months have passed. But this doesn’t mean that I have not been keeping my promise of spending fifteen minutes per week on it”. More instructive are the side-comments, with people either praising him or wishing that he would “die slowly”.
December 13th, 2007 at 12:55 pm
The radicalization of Yemeni men against their government and those outside of it is no longer a surprise (see: http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?articleid=2373814) so it should be no shock that it could be a new base for Al Qaeda. Especially given its historical “look the other way” approach, the new potential developments seem evolutionary rather than shocking.
December 13th, 2007 at 7:42 pm
Brian,
Saw your post over at the Spine. Though I don’t presume to speak for Marty Peretz, I’ve found that our views on the Middle East, especially regarding Israel, coincide remarkably.
It should come as no surprise that al Qaeda’s contemplated next home is Yemen. Not only has Yemen been crawling with al Qaeda operatives for years, but it’s been a perennial incubator of violent hotheads, from the extremist breakaway South Yemen, to the assassin of Rabin, to the Cole perps. In hindsight, the neutralization of Yemen, as a breeder of terrorists, might have been a better strategic target than Iraq.
Not sure of the American University in Cairo’s role in Arab intellectual life. Like the American University in Beirut, it may be somewhat of an enclave. Cairo itself is certainly the fountainhead of Islamism, alas not much of a “brighter side”. My views about this are still informed by Jeffrey Goldberg’s brilliant New Yorker article on the subject: http://tinyurl.com/26ufjx
As for Ahmadinejad, a blog by him strikes me as rather comical. Is it meant to pursuade us that Mahmoud is just plain foks?
Cordially, Jack (jm) Rice
December 14th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
Nice link, Amy.
Jack, themore I think about it, I tend to think that al-Qaeda having a firm base in Yemen might be a tad overstated. There is no doubt at all there are many al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen, and it is a government ripe for taking down (though it isn’t as easy as one migh think), but there would be major difficulties. For one, Yemen has its own rules, and tribes that are one moment sympathetic to your cause are the next working with the government, which has bught them off. Negotiation and co-optation are the main rules by which the factions play.
This isn’t of course to say that Yemen has no problems (and for an in-depth look at this read Gregory D. Johnsen’s articles at the Jamestown Foundation, and some of mine as well), but there is also the chance that Yemen as the base might be overblown. Certainly its Gulf neighbors have always had an interest as portraying Yemen as a wild and untamable, violent country (an image which Yemen has helped them promote), because they do not want Yemen’s weak, oil-poor economy in the GCC. Everything here has several layers. I don’t wish to understate the impact of al-Qaeda in Yemen, but I don’t want to make it seem something it may not be.
As for AUC…I spent a semester there, and was very impressed. I learned from some of the finest professors I have ever known, and came away with an overall good picture. It is an intellectual enclave of the city- but that is part of the problem. It is at the wealthy center and not representative of the huge bulk of the population. Cairo University many times more influential in Cario’s political life.
Thanks for dropping a note, Jack. Hope to keep conversations going here, both in agreement and clashing horns.
December 18th, 2007 at 9:08 pm
Wouldn’t the arrest of the two al-Qaeda members the other day in Yemen seem to give a bit more validity to al-Rashid’s column?
December 19th, 2007 at 10:41 am
Well, the arrest doesn’t really mean anything more or less- no one was disputing that al-Qaeda had a strong presence in Yemen. The question is whether or not al-Qaeda is on the verge of making Yemen its new base. I plan to address this more fully in a post later this week. So, you know, see if you can contain your excitement.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:29 am
Not all of your readers have the patience of Job.
December 26th, 2007 at 2:55 pm
My family is dead, my wealth gone, and I am covered in boils. Why do I have to wait any longer for your post on this?