Some stratfor analysis

May 20th, 2008 by Brian O'Neill

Stratfor.com is an international security site, and one for which you have to pay.   But here is a freebie

 The article, by George Friedman, is trying to discuss the balance of geopolitics and politics, a fascinating topic and one we have touched on a little here.  Despite a somewhat inauspicious start- “Nowhere is that more important than in the Middle East, which increasingly has come to be defined in terms of the Arab-Israeli equation for reasons we don’t fully understand”- the article touches base on things it does understand: how geopolitics imposes on politics.  Concisely:

Geopolitics is being sucked into politics, and apparent breakthroughs are being turned into routine nonevents. The Israeli-Palestinian talks are being sucked into Palestinian politics. The Syrian-Israeli talks are being sucked into Lebanese politics and the complexities of American regional politics. The entire package of opportunities is being sucked into internal Israeli politics.

I would like to see more on how local political concerns influence international ones, but overall it is a good article and worth the read.

Some links

May 15th, 2008 by Brian O'Neill

Readers of this blog know that, along with Yemen, Lebanon is a particular obsession here, for reasons both strategic and emotional.   I’ll still do an occasional piece here and there, mostly about Lebanon’s role in the region, but highly suggest checking out Daniel Graeber’s new FPA blog on Lebanon.  Highly readable and informed, it has quickly become a must-read for anyone who cares about the fate of that troubled, volatile, impossible country.

The Washington Post has a pair of editorials on the Middle East today.  Oneis by Amr Hamzawy and Mohammed Herzallah about democracy in Egypt, and how it is honored more in breach than in practice.

The other is by David Ignatius about moderates in the Arab world being squeezed out.  Not exactly revolutionary, but still interesting.

 Finally, the author has a piece on the three rebellions facing Ali Abdullah Saleh in Yemen in the Jamestown Review’s Terrorism Monitor.  It has been called “breathtakingly perfect” by the author’s mother.

Wishful Thinking?

May 12th, 2008 by Brian O'Neill

There is some good news out of Lebanon, as the legitimate government has managed to regain control of the streets.  But this editorial from The Daily Star seems to be asking too much.

How the Arab League might at least put Lebanon on the right track

I’m somewhat sceptical

Backward Into the Pit

May 8th, 2008 by Brian O'Neill

Lebanon’s stagnant and maddening political quagmire is quickly becoming a hot war that threatens to send this beautiful and violence-racked country reeling back into the dark days of the civil war.

Days of Hezbollah protests and roadblocks are leading to increased confrontation.  Here is the New York Times’ lead.

The decision by the Lebanese government to shut down a private telephone network operated by the Iranian-backed group Hezbollahwas an act of war and Hezbollah would defend itself, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, said on Thursday.

When this becomes a casus belli, one has the impression that war was already in the sheik’s mind.    Michael Young, writing in the Daily Star, backs up this assumption with some analysis. 

Once we accept that this week’s alleged labor unrest was only the latest phase in Hizbullah’s war against the Lebanese state, will we understand what actually took place yesterday. And once we realize that cutting the airport road was a calculated effort by Hizbullah to reverse the Siniora government’s transfer of the airport security chief, Wafiq Shouqair, will we understand what may take place in the coming days.

Since last January, when Hizbullah and Amal used the pretense of social dissatisfaction to obstruct roads in and around Beirut, the opposition has, quite openly, shown itself to be limited to Hizbullah. Michel Aoun, once a useful fig leaf to lend cross-communal diversity to the opposition, has since become an afterthought with hardly any pull in Christian streets.

Long ago we learned that Hizbullah could not, in any real sense, allow the emergence of a Lebanese state free from Syrian control. Soon after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the party tried to suffocate the 2005 “independence intifada” in the egg, realizing that Hizbullah had no future as an autonomous armed group in a state that would seek to reimpose its writ after decades of subservience to Damascus. That effort failed on March 14, 2005 - mostly useful as an event in showing that a majority of people would not be intimidated by Hizbullah’s rally of March 8.

What I think these actions suggest is that, while Syria and especially Iran are deeply involved with the Party of God, Nasrallah is far from a puppet.  Instability and influence in Lebanon are good for these larger countries, but an all-out civil war is bad.  An easy lesson is that, as much as transnational politics matter, local concerns will generally trump them.   Download this CTC report (which also has Greg’s brilliant Yemen article) and read about Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb’s trouble balancing an international movement with more prosaic local concerns.

 These abstract lessons are scant comfort when looking at the stomach-punching horror toward which Lebanon seems to be sliding. 

 

*edit*

Abu Muqawama (whose blog is a must-read) has looked over Nasrallah’s statement and came up with this analysis.

Update: Abu Muqawama has just skimmed the text, and a few things jumped out. One, Nasrallah called Hizbollah’s secure command and control system its greatest weapon during the 2006 war, which Abu Muqawama found interesting. Second, he qualified the whole “declaration of war” bit by calling the government’s decision a “declaration of war” by “the government of (Druze leader) Walid Jumblatt.” Smart, picking on the leader of Lebanon’s tiny Druze community, but it doesn’t appear as if the Sunni have considered themselves exempted from the declaration. Although if Abu Muqawama is correct, (Jumblatt’s Druze ally) Marwan Hamadi remains the minister for telecommunications, true?

*edit 2*

Tony Bey at Beirut2Bayside has a cursory post comparing the tactics and methods used today in Lebanon to those used at the beginning of, and throughout, the 1975-1990 war.  It is interesting, and he promises more later, so I would keep going back there.

Israel Halts Relief Supplies To Struggling Gaza

May 5th, 2008 by Brian O'Neill

Or: Hamas Rocket Attacks Deter Israeli Humanitarian Mission

Or: Israel Content to Let Gaza Fall Apart

Or: Hamas Willing to Sacrifice Own People In War Against Israel

So it goes when wading into the Israeli/Palestinian debate.   The facts are that an Israeli convoy delivering fuel and other supplies was attacked by rocket fire and turned back, unable to deliver much-needed relief goods to the fractured, angry, starving strip. 

Ah, but- so what?  How many divisions do Facts have?  Zero.  You better believe it.  Israel is imposing a blockade on Gaza, but is also delivering supplies.   Different takes show Israel to be monstrously imposing hardships on Gazans or braving rocket attacks to deliver humanitarian goods in the face of unrelenting attacks.  

This blog, with characteristic humility, chooses to allow the facts to speak for themselves, and prefers not to deliver an opinion which would invite vituperative scorn from people it has never met. 

Something New On the Blogroll

May 5th, 2008 by Brian O'Neill

Recently came across this blog, Humble Musings, which touches a lot on women’s issues in the Middle East (and other issues germane to this blog, as well as other interesting pieces).    We don’t seem to get a lot of time to talk about these issues on this page, what with the author’s particular obsessions, so this is a good blog to read to capture more aspects of the Middle East.  It is well-written, concise, and full of interesting links.   It is on the blogroll now, so please check it out. 

Hat-tip: Greg for the link.

AQIM on NPR

May 1st, 2008 by Brian O'Neill

And no, the title isn’t some kind of National Review fantasy about the links between public broadcasting and Evildoers, but rather about a segment on NPR this morning regarding the State Department’s annual report on terrorism.  

The guest was Ambassador Dell Dailey, who talked at length about foreign fighters in Iraq returning home.  We’ve discussed this on the blog regarding Yemen (of course) and to some extent Algeria.   Dailey focused mostly on Algeria, and how the GPSC has become Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb.  Returning jihadis from Iraq are proving themselves to be even more dangerous and adaptable than their predecessors. 

One thing that Dailey focused on was the Sinjar Records- al-Qaeda paperwork on foreign fighters that was found in Iraq.  Read through this summary if you have some time.  It is fascinating and bizarre- one thing which is rarely talked about is how clericalal-Qaeda is.    The documents show where the fighters are from, contact numbers, items entrusted (”500 riyal and a watch”), etc.   It is jarring and a wierd mix of comedy and horror.  Bureaucracy and suicide bombings mixing. 

 Anyway- I will try to read at least the Middle East section of the State Department report tonight, and will report back on it ASAP.*

*- With more emphasis on the “as possible” than the “soon”. 

   

Of Borders and Burnings

April 30th, 2008 by Brian O'Neill

A hideous story from the troubled border of Yemen and Saudi Arabia.  I’ll quote a few passages. 

Saudi policemen burned 18 Yemenis while they were trying to cross into Khamis Bani Mushait, a Saudi village bordering Yemen. Alsahwa opposition newspaper reported on Saturday that the police poured diesel onto the men, who were hiding in a hole in the area to escape the police.

The 18 burnt men were transferred to a police station. They said police interrogated them while they shouted in pain. “They questioned us quietly and with indifferent temperament,” Salloum said.

After four hours of interrogation, they were taken to the civil hospital, where they were left with Philippine doctors for many days. The doctors changed their bandages every four days, which made their injuries worse.

After nine days in the hospital, the 18 burn victims were taken back to the police station and the officer offered them two choices; either to go back to Yemen and write waivers and confessions that the Saudi police weren’t responsible for what happened to them or to stay in Saudi Arabia till they died.

It is difficult to tell what is the greatest horror in the story- the obscene cruelty or the wanton indifference; the lack of any human compassion or the clinical and legalistic way in which punishment and cover-up was inflicted.   This is the kind of story that leaves one with a shudder of terror and a quick desire to forget. 

But this is not a philosophical blog, nor is it a forum to peer into the dark crevasses of man’s soul (for which we can all breathe a sigh of relief).  There are reasons why such a scenario happened, and will continue to happen, if hopefully not to the dark extreme as above.

Why were the men there?  As the Yemen Times said, the “illegal immigrants were trying to get jobs in the Saudi bordering cities”. 

Ah! So simple, so obvious, and yet such a depth of history and desire and humanity and the peculiar idiosyncrasies of the region. 

The Yemen/Saudi border is a Durand Line drawn in shifting sands.   The border was only recently demarcated, and just this year a wall has been going up.   Yemen and Saudi Arabia have fought bitterly over the divide, in what seemed to be just as pointless a battle over wasted land as the recent Ethiopian/Eritrean wars.   But, like those African conflicts, the border was more of an excuse to air past and present grievances.  From the above link:

In many respects, the Yemen-Saudi border dispute was never exclusively about borders, however,  but was a dispute which could be invoked when relations between the two countries were hostile. Tensions between Yemen and Saudi Arabia were more likely to provoke clashes along the disputed border than be caused by such clashes.

Current political tensions do not rest easy in lands unused to lines.   In many ways, this line is little different than the one separating Pashtuns in South Asia, or Kurds throughout the Middle East.  Yes, they mean something, but they are, ultimately, fake black lines that exist only on paper.  They distort reality, in two ways.   They give a fake picture of what is on the ground, but they also actually distort the real world- these lines, as Pynchon knows, twist allegiances, make for awkward overlaps, and in the Middle East, contort ancient history into a confusing patchwork that often makes sense only in Getrude Bell’s inelegant quilting.    These borders often mean little- they have fluidity but not its attendant grace.

Yes, but…a nation-state needs borders, and people need a nation-state in the current economy.   But what if the state is, like Yemen, incapable of competing or even staying afloat in the modern world?  People will flee and seek other opportunities.   And that is where the Yemeni burn victims met indifferent Filipino doctors. 

The mono-economy of Saudi Arabia demands workers to fill other roles, and, like its Gulf neighbors, imports immigrants from around the world.   But not from its poor Arab neighbor, with whom it has a host of problems.   The border is used here as a bludgeon, as Saudi Arabia tried to balance the needs of its doomed economy with its realpolitikrole as enforcer of the Peninsula. 

All this is untenable.  Saudi Arabia needs to recognize that it can’t afford to let its neighbor to the south transform into a failed state.   It has to realize that ties go deeper than the dawn of the House of Saud.  If it doesn’t, it is doomed to repeating the cross-border horrorshows that ignore both humanity and its dreamiest creations. 

Arms and Iran

April 29th, 2008 by Brian O'Neill

Yemen in Newsweek

April 28th, 2008 by Brian O'Neill

Michael Isikoff, who is really one of the best reporters out there, has a brief article on what is happening in Yemen now.  The meat of it is Robert Mueller’s recent visit, about which Isikoff says “did not go well, according to two sources who were briefed on the session but asked not to be identified discussing it. Saleh gave no clear answers about the suspect, Jamal al-Badawi, leaving Mueller “angry and very frustrated,” said one source, who added that he’s rarely seen the normally taciturn FBI director so upset.”

Eagle-eyed readers will note the young, blog-centric and- dare we say?- devilishly handsome expert quoted in the last paragraph.